New Delhi: India’s sugar production is expected to rise sharply by around 16% to 343.5 lakh tonnes in the 2025-26 sugar season, up from 296.1 lakh tonnes in 2024-25, according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
The projection, based on post-monsoon satellite imagery taken in October 2025, was reviewed at ISMA’s executive committee meeting held on November 4. The association said the outlook reflects improved cane acreage, favourable weather, and higher yields across key producing states.
ISMA has estimated total sugarcane acreage at 57.35 lakh hectares for 2025-26, slightly higher (0.4%) than 57.11 lakh hectares in the previous season. The association attributed the improvement to a good monsoon, sufficient reservoir levels, and effective cane development programmes.
“Rainfall has been abundant across most sugar belts, and reservoir storage is adequate to meet crop requirements. Satellite imagery and field reports indicate a good to very good crop condition nationwide,” ISMA said.
Maharashtra To Leads Surge
Maharashtra, the country’s top sugar-producing state, is expected to post a record output of 130 lakh tonnes in 2025-26, up nearly 39% from 93.51 lakh tonnes last year. The state’s sugarcane area has expanded to 14.71 lakh hectares from 13.82 lakh hectares, aided by ample rainfall and high reservoir levels.
In Karnataka, sugar output is projected to rise to 63.5 lakh tonnes from 54.89 lakh tonnes last year, with cane acreage up by 6% to 6.8 lakh hectares. According to ISMA, favourable weather and improved crop conditions have boosted both yields and sugar recovery.
Uttar Pradesh, another major producer, is expected to record 103.2 lakh tonnes of sugar, slightly higher than 101.01 lakh tonnes in 2024-25. Despite a 3% drop in cane area — from 23.30 lakh hectares to 22.57 lakh hectares — improved crop health and new, disease-resistant varieties are likely to enhance productivity, ISMA noted.
Ethanol Diversion & Exports
The diversion of sugar for ethanol production is estimated at 34 lakh tonnes in 2025-26, compared to 35.01 lakh tonnes in the previous year. After accounting for this, net sugar production is projected at 309.5 lakh tonnes, up from 261.08 lakh tonnes in 2024-25, according to ISMA.
With a comfortable sugar balance, India is expected to be in a position to export around 20 lakh tonnes of sugar during the season. The central government has permitted the export of 15 lakh tonnes and removed the 50% export duty on molasses to support the industry.