New Delhi: India’s retail inflation in November showed a modest rise, with the latest data from the National Statistical Office (NSO) indicating a notable shift in both headline and food price trajectories.
The year-on-year headline inflation based on the All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 0.71%, marking an increase of 46 basis points over October. Although still low by historical standards, the uptick signals emerging price pressures after several months of subdued inflation.
Food inflation, measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), remained in negative territory but narrowed considerably. The CFPI registered -3.91% in November, compared with -5.02% in October, showing a sharp rise of 111 basis points. This moderation in deflation suggests that food prices, while still lower than last year, are beginning to stabilize and inch upward.
The key drivers behind this movement were rising prices of vegetables, eggs, meat and fish, spices, and fuel and light — categories that commonly influence household budgets and often respond quickly to changes in supply conditions.
In rural areas, the inflation trend also mirrored the national pattern. Rural headline inflation moved into positive territory, reaching 0.10% compared with -0.25% a month earlier. Rural food inflation rose to -4.05% from -4.85% in October, signalling some easing of price declines in essential food items.
Urban consumers experienced a slightly sharper rise in inflation: headline inflation increased to 1.40% from 0.88% in October, while food inflation improved substantially to -3.60% from -5.18%. These shifts suggest that urban markets may be experiencing stronger demand recovery or different supply dynamics compared to rural areas.
Among the key sectors, housing inflation remained stable, inching down marginally to 2.95%. Education inflation eased slightly to 3.38%, and health inflation too showed a decline to 3.60%, indicating some relief in essential service categories. Transport and communication inflation softened to 0.88%. However, fuel and light registered a noticeable rise to 2.32%, reflecting higher energy-related costs that can eventually influence broader inflation trends.
Collectively, these numbers indicate a gradual rebalancing of prices rather than any immediate inflationary threat. The narrowing of food deflation, combined with steady services inflation, signals that the inflation environment may be transitioning from an extended low-inflation phase to a more neutral zone.
Analysts may interpret the November data as an early sign of normalization, shaped by seasonal factors, recovering demand, and improving supply conditions in certain commodity groups.
The NSO confirmed that price collection during November remained robust, with full coverage of villages and nearly full coverage of urban markets, ensuring reliable estimates. As policymakers monitor inflation closely, November’s figures will likely be viewed as an important indicator of whether the current uptick remains contained or evolves into a more sustained trend.
(Cover photo by Bhaumik Kaji on Unsplash)