New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is expected to be weaker than usual this year, primarily due to the anticipated development of El Niño conditions, along with other influencing factors such as evolving ocean temperature patterns and lower-than-normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.
These climatic drivers are likely to suppress rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, leading the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to project a “below normal” monsoon at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model uncertainty of ±5%.
At a national level, Monday’s forecast places the upcoming monsoon in the “below normal” category, defined as rainfall between 90% and 95% of the LPA. Given that the LPA for the four-month season stands at 87 cm (based on 1971-2020 data), total rainfall is expected to average around 80.04 cm if the IMD’s projections hold.
There is also a 35% probability that rainfall could fall below 90% of LPA, classifying it as “deficient”, while a 31% chance exists for it to remain within the “below normal” band. The combined probability of normal or above-normal rainfall stands lower at 34%.
Uneven distribution
Regionally, rainfall distribution is expected to remain uneven. Most parts of the country are likely to experience below-normal precipitation, although certain pockets in the Northeast, Northwest, and southern peninsular regions may receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall. The spatial variability of rainfall remains a key factor, as uneven timing and distribution can significantly influence agricultural outcomes regardless of total seasonal rainfall.
The primary climatic driver behind this subdued outlook is the expected transition from weak La Niña-like conditions to El Niño during the monsoon months. While ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through early summer, climate models suggest a gradual strengthening of El Niño as the season progresses. This phenomenon typically weakens monsoon circulation over India by altering atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), currently neutral, is projected to turn positive later in the season, which may partially offset the negative impact of El Niño by enhancing rainfall in some regions.
Another contributing factor is the slightly below-normal snow cover observed across the Northern Hemisphere between January and March 2026. Historically, reduced snow cover over Eurasia has shown an inverse relationship with Indian monsoon strength, meaning lower snow levels can be associated with weaker monsoon rainfall. These interconnected global climatic signals collectively shape the monsoon outlook each year.
Agri-output Impact
Despite the projection of below-normal rainfall, historical trends suggest that agricultural output is not solely determined by cumulative rainfall. The timing, geographic spread, and intensity of rains play an equally crucial role. However, crops dependent on rain-fed agriculture, particularly pulses and oilseeds, remain vulnerable under such conditions. A shortfall in their production could lead to increased imports, exert upward pressure on food prices, and potentially affect overall economic growth.
Monsoon accounts for more than 70% of the country’s annual rainfall and remains central to agricultural productivity. That said, improved irrigation infrastructure has reduced some dependence on monsoon rains, with irrigation coverage rising from 49.3% to 55% of the Gross Cropped Area between FY16 and FY21.
The IMD will issue a revised forecast by the end of May, which will provide greater clarity on regional rainfall patterns and the expected onset date of the monsoon.
Inflation Worries
IMD’s prediction of a deficient rainfall has stoked fears of disruption on already fragile agri-output
Front, noted SBI Research in its Ecowrap report. “Basis our study, years with relatively comfortable rainfall have still witnessed elevated food inflation such as 98% rainfall with 8.43% food inflation in FY09, 102% with 15.2% in FY11, while weaker rainfall years such as 93% (FY13) and 91% (FY19) were associated with much lower food inflation of 6.33 % and 0.09 %, respectively," it says.
"Also, the buffer situation of foodgrains (more so on rice front at 380 LMT) looks sufficient to thwart any untoward disruption on Kharif production front, if it be so. As a solace, food production too has apparently little co-relation with rainfall pattern, even the years with lower than LPA rains witnessing good output. What is important is the spatial distribution,” it adds.
(Cover photo by Priyash Vasava on Unsplash)