New Delhi: India could save nearly Rs 28,540 crore annually in foreign exchange and unlock domestic investments worth around Rs 70,000 crore if anti-dumping duties currently under government evaluation are implemented without delay, according to a new report released jointly by the Center for Development and Economic Policy Research (C-DEP) and the Centre for WTO Studies.
The report, titled Impact of Anti-Dumping Duties in India, presents an extensive assessment of how dumped imports are affecting India’s industrial ecosystem, particularly manufacturing competitiveness, MSMEs, employment generation and investment capacity. The study was released during a roundtable discussion chaired by Pritam Banerjee, Head of the Centre for WTO Studies under the Ministry of Commerce, and attended by industry representatives from chemicals, polymers, textiles and other manufacturing sectors.
The study argues that several domestic industries have suffered severe economic damage due to low-priced imports, especially from China and other exporting nations accused of predatory pricing practices. Anti-dumping duties, which are compliant with WTO trade remedy rules, are imposed globally to shield domestic industries from imports sold below fair market value in the exporting country.
According to the report, the cumulative economic losses from dumped imports across 33 products under study currently stand at nearly Rs 1.54 lakh crore. Without corrective measures, those losses could surge to between Rs 2.68 lakh crore and Rs 2.70 lakh crore by 2030.
The report further warns that employment risks are expected to intensify sharply over the coming years. It estimates that jobs under threat due to import-led market distortions could rise from around 24,000 at present to between 38,000 and 42,000 by the end of the decade.
Economic Impact
A central finding of the study is that anti-dumping duties have only a marginal impact on inflation and downstream consumer prices, countering a long-standing argument used against their implementation. An analysis of 56 cases recommended by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), where duties were ultimately not imposed, showed that the median impact on final consumer prices would have been merely 0.023%.
The report noted that more than 91% of the analysed cases would have resulted in a price impact of less than 0.10%, indicating that concerns over inflationary pressure may be overstated.
It also stated that the inflationary contribution from 21 products currently awaiting anti-dumping duty decisions would remain below 0.01 percentage points, even under a conservative 50% pass-through assumption.
The study highlights that MSMEs have been among the worst affected by the absence of timely trade remedies. Sectors such as sublimation-transfer paper, phone back covers and nylon filament yarn have reportedly witnessed factory shutdowns and operational stress due to dumped imports.
In contrast, industries where anti-dumping measures were implemented promptly — including cable ties, ceramic ware and vacuum flasks — recorded sustained operations, capacity expansion and fresh MSME investments.
The report also positions India as a relatively moderate user of anti-dumping measures compared with major global economies. It states that the average duration of anti-dumping duties in India is 6.97 years, significantly lower than the global average of 11.19 years.
By comparison, countries such as the United States and China have imposed substantially steeper anti-dumping tariffs, with certain cases witnessing duty rates as high as 632%.
The report concludes that faster implementation of DGTR-recommended anti-dumping duties could play a critical role in safeguarding domestic manufacturing capacity, reducing import dependence and strengthening India’s long-term industrial resilience.
It emphasises that trade remedy measures are no longer merely defensive instruments but strategic policy tools necessary for protecting investments, preserving jobs and ensuring sustainable industrial growth in an increasingly volatile global trade environment.